Long Division

The Road Less Traveled

Long Division was born in March 2023 in Lexington, Kentucky — so he and Incredibolt share a birthplace, though their paths diverged almost immediately. While some horses in this field were being pointed at the high-profile Florida preps or the Santa Anita circuit, Long Division spent his career on the New York tracks: Aqueduct in winter, Belmont Park in spring.

The New York circuit is competitive — Aqueduct and Belmont host Grade I races regularly — but it has a different rhythm from the major prep race pipeline. Christophe Clement's horses tend to develop slowly and steadily, which means Long Division was asked to prove himself at increasingly tough levels rather than making one bold move to a signature win.

The Wood Memorial at Aqueduct — a Grade II race that has historically sent horses to the Derby — was his key qualifier. He ran second, which earned 40 Road to the Derby points and enough to secure his spot in the gate. His Beyer of 92 in that race is the lowest of the five horses profiled here. But Clement's horses frequently run below their Beyer in workouts and morning preparations, then perform above it on race day.

The French Connection to Belmont Park

Christophe Clement was born in Paris into one of France's most respected racing families — his father Michel Clement was a champion trainer in France, training top horses for decades. Christophe grew up learning the European approach to horse development: patient, long-term, emphasizing the horse's physical and mental well-being over short-term results.

He came to the United States in the mid-1990s and established himself gradually at the New York tracks — Belmont, Saratoga, Aqueduct. He has never tried to fully assimilate into the American style. He conducts his barn in a hybrid fashion: European conditioning principles applied to American dirt racing. His horses gallop longer, work less hard in the mornings, and develop over longer timeframes than most American-trained horses.

The result confounds American clockers. When Clement horses are watched working in the morning, their times look ordinary. They don't "blaze" their preparation works the way many American trainers prefer. But in races, they run above what their workouts suggest. It is a consistent pattern across three decades of training in the United States.

He won the 2011 Belmont Stakes with Ruler On Ice — his biggest American classic win. He has multiple Breeders' Cup winners. His specialty is the kind of European-style distance horse that doesn't always get recognized on the prep circuit but fires on the day that counts. Long Division fits that profile perfectly.

Venezuela to Belmont Park

Junior Alvarado was born in Churuguara, a small town in the Falcón state of northwestern Venezuela — one of several regions that has produced a remarkable pipeline of elite jockeys to American racing. He came to the United States through the established pathway that many Venezuelan riders have followed: work at smaller tracks, build a reputation, earn mounts at the major New York venues.

He is now one of the most consistent performers at Belmont Park and Aqueduct — the same tracks where Christophe Clement has built his operation. The trainer-jockey relationship between Clement and Alvarado has been tested at stakes level before. They know each other's styles. When Clement tells Alvarado to be aggressive early, Alvarado knows exactly what that means. When Clement says to wait, Alvarado waits.

This is Alvarado's first Kentucky Derby mount — a milestone in any rider's career. He has won multiple Grade I races on the New York circuit and at Saratoga, but the Derby is a different stage. The crowd is larger, the field is bigger, the pace dynamics are more unpredictable. His aggressiveness in early placement — a strength in New York races — will need to be calibrated carefully in a 20-horse field where the opening quarter-mile can be chaotic.

From a Podcast to the Paddock

The Empire State Racing Syndicate is twelve people: lawyers, finance professionals, a retired firefighter from Brooklyn, and a schoolteacher from the Bronx. They met through a horse racing podcast community — the kind of online space that has become common in niche sports, where fans who care too much find each other and keep talking long after every episode ends.

In 2024, they decided to do something they had talked about for years: pool their money, buy a Derby prospect, and try to reach the Kentucky Derby. It was, by any rational analysis, a long shot. Most syndicates like theirs never get close. The yearling market is competitive and expensive. The training process is unpredictable. The Road to the Derby is unforgiving.

They spent $300,000 on Long Division as a yearling — significant money, in some cases representing a substantial portion of personal savings. They named the syndicate "Empire State" as a nod to their New York identity and their ambitions. Christophe Clement, who trains out of Belmont Park, was the natural choice: a top New York trainer with a history of patient horse development.

Today, at least three of the twelve members of the Empire State Racing Syndicate are in Louisville for the first time in their lives. They are watching their horse run in the most famous race in America. Whatever happens in the next two minutes at Churchill Downs today, that part of the story is already written.